SYRIA AH PUTIN IN A GEELNA MAH TANGTUNG SAK VEVE
March 17, 2016: Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 14 in Syria gam panin Russia galkapte kisam kik ta ding hi ci a, tua khit a zing ciangin Russia galkapte ciah kik takpi ahih manin leitungah mi tampi in lamdangsa tek hi. Ahih hangin analysts leh policymakers tampi ten Russia in Syria ah galkap gal puak in gal do (long-haul game) dingin um hi. Syria buaina leh 'terrorism' dona pen veng pak dingin kuama'n um lo ahih manin Syria ah Russia in galphual nih a neihte panin a galkap om laite lakhia pah lo dingin ki-ummawh hi. Putin in Syria ah a kigeelna bangin nasep pi ding teng man ta hi, kizo ta ci'n gen hi.
Russia in Syria ah a nasep dingte man takpi hiam? Russia ulian ten Syria ah terrorism galdona kizo ding hi ci'n gen mun mahmah uh hi. Russia in Syria kha nga leh a lang val deuh a kap hangin Syria gam-a ngongtat IS ten gam lianpi uk lai veve a, al-Qaeda tawh kipawl Jabhat al-Nusrate Syria gam mun tuamtuamah hat kawikawi lai uh hi. Syria galdona ah Russiate lawhcing mahmah a, ahih hangin gualzawhna taktak pen ngaihsut phak ding hi lo hi. Russiate Syria ah a kigolhna hangin Gulf kingdoms (Aram gamte) tawh a kitanauna nakpi takin siasak a, NATO member ahi Turkey tawh bang nak siatsak mahmah zaw sem lai hi. Tua hi napi Putin in bang hangin nasep ding kiman ta hi ci thei mawk hiam?
Russia' ngimna:
Syria ah a kigolh manin Russia in gualzawhna bang ngah hiam a ci ten Russia a kigolh ma-in Syria ah thuneihna (balance of power dynamics) om dan ngaihsut masak ding kisam hi. Russia in Sept. 30, 2015 in Syria ah galdo a kipat ma-in Syria President Bashar al-Assad pen Syria lehdo (rebels) ten zo ding bangin om a, Assad' minamte - Alawitte kicite teenna ah rebels ten gam keek in mainawt uh a, hih kiim a teng ten lametna ding nei nawn lo uh hi. Syria kumpi pen tua lai takin Iran leh Lebanese Hezbollahte huhna bek tawh a nak liailiai bek hi. Nung kum May in IS ten Palmyra la in, tua kha mah in rebels ten Idlib province sung Syria kumpi' khut panin laksak kik hi. Tua hun lai takin Syria rebels gumte - Saudi Arabia, Turkey, US, France, Britain leh Arab gam tuamtuam leh nitumna lam gam ten president Assad a kitawp ding bek tangko pih uh a, kihona leh kilemna thu gen a kipat theihna dingin Assad a kitawp masak loh phamawh hi cih mit del sialkhau let in len uh hi. International analysts ten zong Syria kumpi pen a puk ding hita hi ci uh hi. Tua hun lai takin Russiate hong kigolh uh hi. Russiate kigolhna hangin Syria gam-a galdona ah thuneihna leh ki-uk om zia (balance of power and political scenario) hong kilaih pah in, Syria kumpi in Russiate bomb khiatna hangin lei lamah mainawt thei in, gam a khah suahsa lianpi hong la kik zo hi. Russian Defence Ministry in Syria kumpi in Sept. 2015 panin gam 10,000 sq. km la kik hi ci'n gen hi.
Syria ah a kigolh manin Russia in gualzawhna bang ngah hiam a ci ten Russia a kigolh ma-in Syria ah thuneihna (balance of power dynamics) om dan ngaihsut masak ding kisam hi. Russia in Sept. 30, 2015 in Syria ah galdo a kipat ma-in Syria President Bashar al-Assad pen Syria lehdo (rebels) ten zo ding bangin om a, Assad' minamte - Alawitte kicite teenna ah rebels ten gam keek in mainawt uh a, hih kiim a teng ten lametna ding nei nawn lo uh hi. Syria kumpi pen tua lai takin Iran leh Lebanese Hezbollahte huhna bek tawh a nak liailiai bek hi. Nung kum May in IS ten Palmyra la in, tua kha mah in rebels ten Idlib province sung Syria kumpi' khut panin laksak kik hi. Tua hun lai takin Syria rebels gumte - Saudi Arabia, Turkey, US, France, Britain leh Arab gam tuamtuam leh nitumna lam gam ten president Assad a kitawp ding bek tangko pih uh a, kihona leh kilemna thu gen a kipat theihna dingin Assad a kitawp masak loh phamawh hi cih mit del sialkhau let in len uh hi. International analysts ten zong Syria kumpi pen a puk ding hita hi ci uh hi. Tua hun lai takin Russiate hong kigolh uh hi. Russiate kigolhna hangin Syria gam-a galdona ah thuneihna leh ki-uk om zia (balance of power and political scenario) hong kilaih pah in, Syria kumpi in Russiate bomb khiatna hangin lei lamah mainawt thei in, gam a khah suahsa lianpi hong la kik zo hi. Russian Defence Ministry in Syria kumpi in Sept. 2015 panin gam 10,000 sq. km la kik hi ci'n gen hi.
Russia hong kigolh cil panin rebelste bek ngim in kap hi cih ngawhna tampi om hi (a dikna ciang om veve). Tua pen Russia geelna ah kihel hi. Putin in ISte pen bomb khiatna bek tawh kizo ngei lo ding hi cih na tel a, cian takin na mu khol khin zo hi. ISte do theihna dingin Syria kumpi in rebelste khutah a khahsuah gamte a lak kik loh phamawh hi. Syria kumpi in rebels ten a lakna gamte lak kik sak zo kei leh Syria kumpi tawh kiho ding ut ngei lo ding hi cih Putin in tel cian mahmah a, Syria kumpi langpang (opposition) ten Syria kumpi puk ding bek ngah uh hi. Russia in rebelste thanem theihna dingin a hatna munte uh - Idlib leh Aleppo deih takin a vik uh ciangin rebelste adingin thu nam nih bek teel ding hong om pah hi - (i)Guallel kawmkawmpi mah tawh galdo zom ding maw? (ii) Ahih kei leh kilemna om theihna dingin Syria kumpi tawh kihona nei ding? cih ahi hi. Syria rebels gum ten zong kihona a om theihna dingin Assad a kitawp masak ding hi cih a lungsim uh hong khel uh hi. Russia in rebelste deih takin a vik ciangin a lungsim uh leh a ngaihsutna uh hong kikhel thei in, kilemna thugen ding hong lunggulh thei pan uh hi.
Bang hanga Russia in a galkapte la khia hiam?
Russia/Putin in galkap thahatna tawh Syria buaina pen veng ngei lo ding hi cih thei tel hi. Putin in 2012 in Syria kumpi kilaihna ding (transition government) a vaihawm hangin US leh EU gam ulian ten Assad vaihawmna tuk ding hita hi ci'n na nial hi. Russia ngimna lian pen ahih leh: 1. Russia in Soviet gam pua ah galkap phual (teembaw khawlna) a neihna mun pen Syria bek ahih manin a galphual kem bit nuam a, gam dangte a hat luat ding hih kiim ah deih lo hi. 2. Putin in Syria kumpi a tuk ding deih lo a, Libya bangin gamnuaimite hatna leh bukna a suahna gam ahih ding deih lo hi. 3. Syria rebels ten zong galvan hoih neih mahmah ahih manin galkap thahatna tawh Syria buaina vensak theih ding hi lo a, Syria gam vaihawmna pen gam dangte deihna bang hi loin Syria mite deihna bang a vaihawmsak ding ngim in nei a, hih buaina ah sawt kigolh ding hoih sa lo hi. 4. Putin in khangthu ciamtehna ah 1979 in Leonid Brezhnev makaih in Afghanistan sim in, kum 9 khit nungin gual lel in a ciah kik bangin Russiate maizumna guan kik nuam lo ahih manin galkapte a sap kik ahi hi. 5. Putin in US ten a bei thei ngei lo ding, Iraq leh Afghanistan sim in, kigolh in, gal a do bangin Russia galkapte galdo ding deih lo hi. 6. Russia sum leh pai bawlna (economy) lamsang pen nak kiat lua a, 2015 in Russiate GDP 3.7 per cent in kia in $ 1 leh Russia sum rouble 50 tawh hong kikim suk ciangin Russia in meetna ding om lopi in galdo nuam lo hi. 7. Russia in Syria kumpi a tang gup hilo a, kilemna a om theihna ding leh terrorism a khan' semsem ding dalna in Syria kumpi leh a langpang ten kilemna a om theihna dingin Geneva "Peace Talks' a lawhcin'na ding a deihna hang leh Russia pen Syria sim hi lo hi cih lahna dingin a galkapte a sap kik ahi hi.
Russia/Putin in galkap thahatna tawh Syria buaina pen veng ngei lo ding hi cih thei tel hi. Putin in 2012 in Syria kumpi kilaihna ding (transition government) a vaihawm hangin US leh EU gam ulian ten Assad vaihawmna tuk ding hita hi ci'n na nial hi. Russia ngimna lian pen ahih leh: 1. Russia in Soviet gam pua ah galkap phual (teembaw khawlna) a neihna mun pen Syria bek ahih manin a galphual kem bit nuam a, gam dangte a hat luat ding hih kiim ah deih lo hi. 2. Putin in Syria kumpi a tuk ding deih lo a, Libya bangin gamnuaimite hatna leh bukna a suahna gam ahih ding deih lo hi. 3. Syria rebels ten zong galvan hoih neih mahmah ahih manin galkap thahatna tawh Syria buaina vensak theih ding hi lo a, Syria gam vaihawmna pen gam dangte deihna bang hi loin Syria mite deihna bang a vaihawmsak ding ngim in nei a, hih buaina ah sawt kigolh ding hoih sa lo hi. 4. Putin in khangthu ciamtehna ah 1979 in Leonid Brezhnev makaih in Afghanistan sim in, kum 9 khit nungin gual lel in a ciah kik bangin Russiate maizumna guan kik nuam lo ahih manin galkapte a sap kik ahi hi. 5. Putin in US ten a bei thei ngei lo ding, Iraq leh Afghanistan sim in, kigolh in, gal a do bangin Russia galkapte galdo ding deih lo hi. 6. Russia sum leh pai bawlna (economy) lamsang pen nak kiat lua a, 2015 in Russiate GDP 3.7 per cent in kia in $ 1 leh Russia sum rouble 50 tawh hong kikim suk ciangin Russia in meetna ding om lopi in galdo nuam lo hi. 7. Russia in Syria kumpi a tang gup hilo a, kilemna a om theihna ding leh terrorism a khan' semsem ding dalna in Syria kumpi leh a langpang ten kilemna a om theihna dingin Geneva "Peace Talks' a lawhcin'na ding a deihna hang leh Russia pen Syria sim hi lo hi cih lahna dingin a galkapte a sap kik ahi hi.
US leh Russia vaihawmna tawh Syria ah ceasefire Feb 27 panin kinei thei a, tu dong lawhcing ta dih hi. Syria kumpi langpang ten zong Libya gam bangin Syria a suah khaksak ding ngaihsun thei ta uh hi. Syria ah Putin' kigolhna hangin kilemna taktak neihna dingin kihona hong piang thei bek a, US leh nitumna lam gam ten zong amau deih bangin kumpi khat kilaih ziauziau thei mawk lo hi cih hong phawk uh a, maizumna lianpi tawh Assad kitawp hen cih a tangkopih uh tangkopih ngam nawn lo uh hi. Putin' gen bang ISte pen gam khempeuh pan'khopna leh Syria ah Syria kumpi leh rebelste pan'khopna lo tawh kizo lo ding hi cih kuapeuh phawksak hi.
-stanly.johny@thehindu.co.in
